NYCB: Suffering From Recency Bias

6/18/18

In just about every investor presentation I can find, New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) trots out a screenshot of its total return since its IPO. And I’m not going to lie, it’s glorious. If an investor purchased 100 shares in 1993 and simply held, they would have 2,700 shares today. The CAGR is 22.9% and the total return looks like this:

June 2018 Investor Presentation

For the buy-and-hold (ideally forever) investor, this is a match made in heaven. The company has long demonstrated its commitment to shareholders, paying generous qualified dividends since 1994. The setup was perfect. As most Americans (myself included) fork over a huge chunk of change in mortgage interest to our local or national bank each month, NYCB shareholders directly benefited from the arrangement as the bank distributed over 5% annually to its faithful shareholders.

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