With a few analyst shops modeling 2020 estimates that include yearly declines for Eylea sales, the question is whether the pending phase 3 prospects of Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) will be able to carry the proverbial spear. A blockbuster drug in the macular degeneration space, Eylea is responsible for 63% of the firm’s revenue, and the fear is that new competitors and lower dosing regimes may crimp further growth. On a separate front, the fear that reimbursement headwinds might slow the adaption of Praluent and Dupixent has also unsettled investors.
After hitting an all-time high of $562 in November 2015, REGN’s price fell to a low of $284 this May, testing support lines not seen since mid-2013. The selling from September 2017 to May 2018 was both steady and relentless - from $500 to $300 over the course of nine months. Novartis’s (NYSE:NVS) anti-VEGF brolucizumab drug (RTH258) started to show promise during this time frame. REGN’s decision to drop guidance for Eylea elicited a tough downgrade by a Cannacord analyst in February, as it suggested the drug’s market share was in more future jeopardy than it actually was.
